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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1802988
全球自动驾驶最后一哩配送市场:未来预测(至 2032 年)—按平台、解决方案、范围、应用程式、最终用户和地区进行分析Autonomous Last-Mile Delivery Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Platform (Aerial Delivery Drones, Ground Delivery Vehicles and Self-Driving Trucks & Vans), Solution, Range, Application, End User and By Geography |
根据 Stratistics MRC 的数据,全球自动最后一哩配送市场预计在 2025 年达到 259 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 1,346 亿美元,预测期内的复合年增长率为 26.5%。
自主最后一哩配送是指使用自动驾驶汽车、无人机和机器人将货物直接从配送中心或区域设施运送到客户家门口,无需人工干预。该技术利用先进的导航系统、人工智慧、感测器和互联互通解决方案,确保及时、高效、非接触式配送。它旨在降低营运成本,最大限度地缩短配送时间,并应对驾驶员短缺和都市区拥堵等挑战。自主最后一哩配送广泛应用于电商、食品和物流领域,透过提供扩充性、永续且以客户为中心的解决方案来重塑供应链,以满足日益增长的消费者期望。
电子商务的蓬勃发展
不断增长的电子商务需求推动着「最后一哩路」自动化配送技术的快速创新,从而提升了效率、扩充性和成本节约。随着线上零售向都市区和半都市区扩张,自动驾驶汽车和无人机提供了更快捷的非接触式配送解决方案,减少了对人力的依赖和营运瓶颈。这种转变正在加速对人工智慧主导的物流、智慧路线和监管框架的投资,使「最后一哩路」配送成为高成长前沿领域。电子商务与自动化之间的协同效应正在重塑全球消费者的期望和物流基础设施。
监管障碍
监管壁垒严重阻碍了自动驾驶「最后一哩路」配送市场的发展,导致试验计画进展缓慢、跨境营运复杂化以及合规成本增加。区域政策碎片化带来了不确定性,并抑制了投资和创新。资料使用、车辆分类和都市区通行区域的限制进一步限制了可扩展性。这些障碍减缓了商业化进程,限制了竞争优势,抑制了生态系统的成长,并削弱了在人口密集地区彻底改变物流效率和消费者便利性的潜力。
技术进步
技术进步正在透过提高效率、扩充性和消费者满意度,彻底改变自动驾驶最后一英里配送市场。人工智慧、机器人和物联网领域的创新实现了精准导航、即时追踪和自适应路线优化,从而缩短了配送时间和营运成本。 5G和边缘运算的融合加速了资料处理,永续电动车则支援绿色物流。这些突破性技术正在推动其在都市区的广泛应用,并透过更聪明、更安全、更快捷的解决方案重塑零售、食品和医疗保健服务。
初期投资高
高昂的初始投资阻碍了中小型物流公司的采用,严重阻碍了自动驾驶最后一哩配送市场的成长。先进机器人技术、人工智慧整合和法规合规性方面的高昂成本构成了进入壁垒,减缓了可扩展性和创新。这种经济负担会延迟投资回报,限制试点部署,限制地理扩张(尤其是在新兴市场),并最终扼杀整个配送价值链上更广泛的商业化和生态系统发展。
COVID-19的影响
新冠疫情使得非接触式物流变得至关重要,并加速了最后一英里无人配送的普及。封锁措施和电商需求的激增推动了配送无人机和机器人的创新,降低了人为接触的风险。儘管初期存在一些干扰,但在监管机构的支持下,投资的增加已促成市场发生长期结构性转变。无人配送解决方案在食品杂货和医疗保健领域日益受到青睐,再形成了消费者的期望,并巩固了其在韧性十足、面向未来的供应链中的地位。
预计软体领域将成为预测期内最大的领域
由于扩充性和即时优化功能,预计软体领域将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率。先进的路线演算法、车队管理平台和人工智慧决策系统可以提高配送速度、降低营运成本并提升客户满意度。与物联网和云端基础设施的整合实现了预测性维护和整个城市物流的无缝协调。随着法律规范的不断发展,软体能够确保合规性和适应性,使其成为自主配送创新和竞争差异化的支柱。
预计零售业在预测期内将以最高复合年增长率成长
预计零售业将在预测期内实现最高成长率,这得益于消费者对速度和便利性的期望不断提升。消费者对经济高效的非接触式配送解决方案的需求正在推动自动驾驶汽车和智慧路线系统的创新。透过将这些技术融入其全通路策略,零售商正在重塑城市交通,减少碳排放,并提高客户满意度。这些技术的规模和影响力对于自动驾驶配送从试点阶段转型为主流物流基础设施至关重要。
预计亚太地区将在预测期内占据最大的市场占有率,这得益于快速的都市化、电子商务的扩张以及消费者对更快捷、更经济的配送服务日益增长的需求。中国、日本和印度等国家正大力投资人工智慧、机器人技术和智慧物流,推动相关技术的普及。人事费用的上升和交通拥堵进一步加速了自动驾驶解决方案的转变。此外,政府对智慧城市计画和永续交通系统的支持正在加强市场扩张,提高效率和客户满意度。
在预测期内,由于速度、精度和永续性的提升,北美预计将呈现最高的复合年增长率。在电子商务成长和劳动力短缺的推动下,无人驾驶汽车和无人机缩短了配送时间和营运成本,同时提高了客户满意度。这些创新也透过电动车支援排放,并透过人工智慧路线规划优化城市交通。随着应用的加速,市场将刺激机器人和数据分析领域的就业机会创造,使北美成为智慧高效物流的全球领导者。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Autonomous Last-Mile Delivery Market is accounted for $25.9 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $134.6 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 26.5% during the forecast period. Autonomous Last-Mile Delivery refers to the use of self-driving vehicles, drones, or robots to transport goods from a distribution hub or local facility directly to the customer's doorstep without human intervention. This technology leverages advanced navigation systems, artificial intelligence, sensors, and connectivity solutions to ensure timely, efficient, and contactless deliveries. It aims to reduce operational costs, minimize delivery times, and address challenges such as driver shortages and urban congestion. Widely adopted in e-commerce, food, and logistics sectors, autonomous last-mile delivery is reshaping supply chains by offering scalable, sustainable, and customer-centric solutions to meet rising consumer expectations.
Rising E-commerce Growth
Surging e-commerce demand is catalyzing rapid innovation in autonomous last-mile delivery, driving efficiency, scalability, and cost reduction. As online retail expands across urban and semi-urban zones, autonomous vehicles and drones offer faster, contactless delivery solutions, reducing human dependency and operational bottlenecks. This shift is accelerating investment in AI-driven logistics, smart routing, and regulatory frameworks, transforming last-mile delivery into a high-growth frontier. The synergy between e-commerce and automation is reshaping consumer expectations and logistics infrastructure worldwide.
Regulatory Barriers
Regulatory barriers significantly hinder the autonomous last-mile delivery market by delaying pilot programs, complicating cross-border operations, and increasing compliance costs. Fragmented policies across regions create uncertainty, discouraging investment and innovation. Restrictions on data usage, vehicle classification, and urban access zones further constrain scalability. These hurdles slow commercialization, limit competitive advantage, and stifle ecosystem growth, impeding the sector's potential to revolutionize logistics efficiency and consumer convenience in densely populated areas.
Technological Advancements
Technological advancements are revolutionizing the autonomous last-mile delivery market by enhancing efficiency, scalability, and consumer satisfaction. Innovations in AI, robotics, and IoT enable precise navigation, real-time tracking, and adaptive route optimization, reducing delivery times and operational costs. Integration of 5G and edge computing accelerates data processing, while sustainable electric fleets support eco-friendly logistics. These breakthroughs are driving widespread adoption across urban and suburban landscapes, reshaping retail, food, and healthcare delivery with smarter, safer, and more responsive solutions.
High Initial Investment
High initial investment significantly hampers the growth of the autonomous last-mile delivery market by deterring small and mid-sized logistics firms from adoption. The steep costs of advanced robotics, AI integration, and regulatory compliance create barriers to entry, slowing scalability and innovation. This financial burden delays ROI, limits pilot deployments, and restricts geographic expansion, especially in emerging markets-ultimately stalling broader commercialization and ecosystem development across the delivery value chain.
Covid-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of autonomous last-mile delivery as contactless logistics became essential. Lockdowns and surging e-commerce demand drove innovation in delivery drones and robots, reducing human exposure risks. Despite initial disruptions, the market saw long-term structural shifts, with increased investment and regulatory support. Autonomous solutions gained traction in grocery and healthcare segments, reshaping consumer expectations and solidifying their role in resilient, future-ready supply chains
The software segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The software segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, due to scalability, and real-time optimization. Advanced routing algorithms, fleet management platforms, and AI-powered decision systems enhance delivery speed, reduce operational costs, and improve customer satisfaction. Integration with IoT and cloud infrastructure enables predictive maintenance and seamless coordination across urban logistics. As regulatory frameworks evolve, software ensures compliance and adaptability, positioning it as the backbone of autonomous delivery innovation and competitive differentiation.
The retailers segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the retailers segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, due to rising consumer expectations for speed and convenience. Their demand for cost-efficient, contactless delivery solutions is driving innovation in autonomous fleets and smart routing systems. By integrating these technologies into omnichannel strategies, retailers are reshaping urban mobility, reducing carbon footprints, and enhancing customer satisfaction. Their scale and influence are pivotal in transforming autonomous delivery from pilot phase to mainstream logistics infrastructure.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share due to rapid urbanization, expanding e-commerce, and increasing consumer demand for faster and cost-effective deliveries. Countries like China, Japan, and India are investing heavily in AI, robotics, and smart logistics, fostering adoption. Rising labor costs and traffic congestion are further accelerating the shift toward autonomous solutions. Additionally, government support for smart city initiatives and sustainable transport systems strengthens the market's expansion, enhancing efficiency and customer satisfaction.
Over the forecast period, the North America region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, as it enhances speed, precision, and sustainability. Driven by e-commerce growth and labor shortages, unmanned vehicles and drones reduce delivery times and operational costs while improving customer satisfaction. These innovations also support emissions reduction through electric fleets and optimize urban mobility using AI-powered route planning. As adoption accelerates, the market fosters job creation in robotics and data analytics, positioning North America as a global leader in smart, efficient logistics.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players profiled in the Autonomous Last-Mile Delivery Market include Starship Technologies, Nuro, Amazon Robotics, JD.com, Alibaba Group, FedEx, UPS Flight Forward, Wing, Zipline, Kiwibot, Boxbot, Postmates, Robby Technologies, Marble, Refraction AI, Eliport, Neolix, Udelv, Gatik AI and Caterpillar Inc.
In August 2025, Caterpillar has forged a long-term strategic alliance with Hunt Energy to power "always-on" data centers. Beginning in Texas, the multi-year plan aims to roll out up to 1 GW of reliable, independent energy across North America.
In May 2025, SAP and Alibaba Group have forged a strategic pact to accelerate cloud transformation. Alibaba will adopt SAP Cloud ERP Private and a full SAP suite-plus AI tools like Qwen-boosting agility, resilience, and digital scale across Asia.
In March 2024, FedEx and Amazon quietly explored a potential tie-up to handle e-commerce returns via FedEx's retail locations. Though talks fell through, the move signaled shifting tides in parcel delivery as both sought fresh paths amid evolving logistics landscapes.