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市场调查报告书
商品编码
1904631
2032年全球自动驾驶城市最后一公里配送市场预测:按车辆类型、经营模式、企业规模、技术、最终用户和地区分類的分析Autonomous Urban Last-Mile Delivery Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Vehicle Type, Business Model, Organization Size, Technology, End User and By Geography |
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根据 Stratistics MRC 的研究,预计到 2025 年,全球自主城市最后一公里配送市场规模将达到 362 亿美元,到 2032 年将达到 1,457 亿美元,预测期内复合年增长率为 22%。
城市末端自主配送是指在城市环境中,利用自动驾驶车辆、机器人或无人机,在无需人工直接控制的情况下,将货物从本地配送中心运送至最终客户。这些系统利用人工智慧、感测器、GPS 和即时连接,在复杂的城市基础设施中穿梭,管理交通状况,并确保安全配送。城市末端自主配送旨在提高速度、效率和成本效益,支援电子商务、食品和零售物流,同时减少交通拥堵、劳动力依赖和碳排放。它在建立可扩展、按需和可持续的城市物流网络中发挥关键作用。
电子商务需求的成长加速了配送自动化进程。
随着电子商务需求的不断增长,都市区的「最后一公里」自动驾驶配送平台正在迅速扩张,加速了配送自动化进程。消费者越来越期望食品杂货、服饰、医疗产品等商品能在数小时内送达。这一趋势的驱动力来自都市生活方式、数位科技的普及以及以便利性为导向的经济模式。零售商和物流业者正在投资自动驾驶车辆,以提高「最后一公里」配送效率。人工智慧导航和机器人技术的整合进一步提升了营运规模。电子商务需求的不断增长正在推动市场发展。
复杂的监管障碍减缓了采用速度。
复杂的监管障碍仍然是自动驾驶末端配送平台发展的主要限制因素。各国政府对安全、交通管理和责任架构都制定了严格的合规要求。由于地区政策差异,企业在拓展业务方面面临许多挑战。小规模业者比大型企业更难适应不断变化的法规。高成本的认证和合规审核成本也加剧了这些挑战。儘管市场需求强劲,但复杂的监管障碍阻碍了自动驾驶都市区末端配送的广泛应用。
扩展智慧城市物流网络
智慧城市正在整合物联网、人工智慧和互联基础设施,以支援无缝物流。自动驾驶车辆受益于即时交通管理、预测分析和优化的通道配置。企业正在将自动配送融入智慧城市生态系统,以提高可扩展性和永续性。与地方政府的合作正在加速城市物流领域的创新。智慧城市物流网络的扩展为市场创造了巨大的成长机会。
自主系统中的网路安全风险
联网车队会产生敏感的营运数据,这些数据极易遭受资料外洩和网路攻击。企业面临合规审核和安全投资成本不断上涨的困境。与大型企业相比,小规模供应商更难建立健全的网路安全框架。日益严格的资料保护法规也进一步增加了营运的复杂性。网路安全风险正在削弱人们对都市区末端自动驾驶配送市场的信任,威胁着该市场的持续成长。
新冠疫情加速了对都市区末端自动驾驶配送的需求,因为消费者转向了非接触式物流。一方面,供应链中断和基础设施计划延误减缓了其普及速度;另一方面,电子商务、医疗用品和日用品需求的激增推动了其普及。在封锁期间,自动驾驶车队成为确保服务连续性的关键。这场危机凸显了建构一个具有韧性、非接触式、自动化配送生态系统的重要性。总而言之,新冠疫情提高了人们对城市末端自动驾驶配送作为城市物流战略驱动力的认识。
预计在预测期内,自主地面车辆细分市场将占据最大的市场份额。
预计在预测期内,自动驾驶地面车辆细分市场将占据最大的市场份额,这主要得益于人口密集都市区对可扩展、安全高效的配送系统的需求。地面车辆能够灵活地在城市道路上行驶,并可与现有的物流网路无缝整合。企业正在利用自动驾驶地面车队来提升客户参与并缩短配送时间。都市区消费者对便利性的需求推动了对可扩展地面解决方案的需求。而与人工智慧导航技术的整合则进一步促进了该技术的普及应用。
预计在预测期内,医疗保健服务提供者和药局板块的复合年增长率将最高。
由于对药品、诊断试剂盒和基本医疗用品的即时获取需求不断增长,预计医疗服务提供者和药房领域在预测期内将实现最高增长率。医疗服务提供者正越来越多地利用自主配送平台来改善患者疗效和依从性。关键物资的即时配送提高了医疗生态系统的营运效率。对数位医疗领域投资的增加正在推动该领域的需求,而与人工智慧驱动的物流的整合则进一步促进了其应用。随着医疗服务提供者和药局加速数位转型,自主末端配送正在推动市场成长。
由于北美地区拥有先进的物流基础设施、健全的法规结构以及对自动驾驶配送平台的早期投资,预计该地区将在预测期内占据最大的市场份额。主要技术供应商的存在和成熟的电子商务生态系统正在推动自动驾驶技术的大规模应用。监管创新和对永续性的关注正在推动自动驾驶汽车的普及。北美企业正优先考虑透过自动驾驶模式实现即时配送和客户参与。对医疗保健零售物流的高需求进一步促进了自动驾驶技术的普及。
预计亚太地区在预测期内将实现最高的复合年增长率,这主要得益于新兴经济体快速的都市化、不断扩大的行动用户群体以及政府主导的智慧城市计画。中国、印度和东南亚等国家正大力投资自动驾驶配送系统,以支持电子商务的成长。人口密集城市对即时配送的需求不断增长,推动了人工智慧驱动车辆的普及。当地企业正在采用可扩展的平台来满足日益增长的数位化需求。不断扩展的数位生态系统正在强化自动驾驶配送在企业现代化进程中的作用。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Autonomous Urban Last-Mile Delivery Market is accounted for $36.2 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $145.7 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 22% during the forecast period. Autonomous urban last-mile delivery refers to the use of self-operating vehicles, robots, or drones to transport goods from local distribution points to end customers within city environments without direct human control. These systems leverage artificial intelligence, sensors, GPS, and real-time connectivity to navigate complex urban infrastructure, manage traffic conditions, and ensure safe delivery. Designed to improve speed, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness, autonomous last-mile delivery supports e-commerce, food, and retail logistics while reducing congestion, labor dependency, and carbon emissions. It plays a critical role in enabling scalable, on-demand, and sustainable urban logistics networks.
Rising e-commerce demand accelerates delivery automation
Autonomous urban last-mile delivery platforms are expanding rapidly with rising e-commerce demand accelerating delivery automation. Consumers increasingly expect groceries, apparel, and healthcare products to be delivered within hours. This trend is driven by urban lifestyles, digital adoption, and the convenience economy. Retailers and logistics providers are investing in autonomous fleets to strengthen last-mile efficiency. Integration with AI-driven navigation and robotics further enhances operational scalability. Rising e-commerce demand is propelling growth in the market.
Complex regulatory hurdles slow deployment
Complex regulatory hurdles remain a significant restraint for autonomous last-mile delivery platforms. Governments impose strict compliance requirements on safety, traffic management, and liability frameworks. Enterprises face delays in scaling operations due to fragmented regional policies. Smaller players struggle to adapt to evolving regulations compared to larger corporations. High costs of certification and compliance audits add further challenges. Complex regulatory hurdles are restraining widespread adoption of autonomous urban last-mile delivery despite strong demand.
Expansion in smart city logistics networks
Smart cities increasingly integrate IoT, AI, and connected infrastructure to support seamless logistics. Autonomous fleets benefit from real-time traffic management, predictive analytics, and optimized routing. Enterprises are embedding autonomous delivery into smart city ecosystems to improve scalability and sustainability. Partnerships with municipalities accelerate innovation in urban logistics. Expansion in smart city logistics networks is fostering significant growth opportunities in the market.
Cybersecurity risks in autonomous systems
Connected fleets generate sensitive operational data vulnerable to breaches and cyberattacks. Enterprises face rising costs due to compliance audits and security investments. Smaller providers struggle to implement robust cybersecurity frameworks compared to larger players. Regulatory emphasis on data protection adds further complexity to operations. Cybersecurity risks are restraining confidence and threatening consistent growth in the autonomous urban last-mile delivery market.
The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated demand for autonomous urban last-mile delivery as consumers shifted to contactless logistics. On one hand, supply chain disruptions and delayed infrastructure projects slowed deployments. On the other hand, surging demand for e-commerce, healthcare supplies, and essential goods boosted adoption. Autonomous fleets became critical in ensuring continuity of services during lockdowns. The crisis reinforced the importance of resilient, contactless, and automated delivery ecosystems. Overall, Covid-19 boosted awareness of autonomous last-mile delivery as a strategic enabler of urban logistics.
The autonomous ground vehicles segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The autonomous ground vehicles segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period driven by demand for scalable, safe, and efficient delivery systems in dense urban areas. Ground vehicles provide flexibility in navigating city streets and integrating with existing logistics networks. Enterprises rely on autonomous ground fleets to strengthen customer engagement and reduce delivery times. Demand for scalable ground-based solutions is rising as urban consumers prioritize convenience. Integration with AI-driven navigation further strengthens adoption.
The healthcare providers & pharmacies segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the healthcare providers & pharmacies segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate supported by rising demand for instant access to medicines, diagnostic kits, and healthcare essentials. Healthcare providers increasingly leverage autonomous delivery platforms to improve patient outcomes and compliance. Real-time delivery of critical supplies strengthens operational efficiency in healthcare ecosystems. Rising investment in digital health initiatives is reinforcing demand in this segment. Integration with AI-driven logistics further amplifies adoption. As healthcare providers and pharmacies accelerate digital adoption autonomous last-mile delivery is propelling growth in the market.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share driven by advanced logistics infrastructure strong regulatory frameworks and early investment in autonomous delivery platforms. The presence of leading technology providers and mature e-commerce ecosystems supports large-scale deployments. Regulatory emphasis on innovation and sustainability drives adoption of autonomous fleets. Enterprises in North America prioritize instant delivery and customer engagement through autonomous models. High demand for healthcare and retail logistics further strengthens adoption.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR fueled by rapid urbanization expanding mobile subscriber base and government-led smart city initiatives across emerging economies. Countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asia are investing heavily in autonomous delivery systems to support e-commerce growth. Rising demand for instant delivery in densely populated cities strengthens adoption of AI-driven fleets. Local enterprises are deploying scalable platforms to meet growing digital needs. Expanding digital ecosystems are reinforcing the role of autonomous delivery in enterprise modernization.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Autonomous Urban Last-Mile Delivery Market include Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc., United Parcel Service, Inc., FedEx Corporation, DHL International GmbH, JD.com, Inc., Meituan Dianping, Nuro, Inc., Starship Technologies, Inc., Zipline International, Inc., Wingcopter GmbH, Workhorse Group, Inc., Eliport Robotics, S.L., Cleveron AS and Segway Robotics.
In January 2023, UPS announced a multi-year commercial agreement with Gatik to deploy its autonomous box trucks on middle-mile delivery routes in Texas, specifically to streamline the movement of goods from micro-fulfillment centers to store locations, optimizing the supply chain for last-mile readiness.
In June 2022, Waymo Via announced a strategic partnership with Uber Freight to integrate its autonomous driving technology with Uber's freight logistics network. This agreement aims to deploy autonomous trucks for middle-mile logistics, which feeds into last-mile delivery hubs.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.